Synthetic Controls

Brazil Results

Synthetic Controls

	Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.83 (0.75, 1.04)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)
2	0.77 (0.73, 0.86)
3	0.75 (0.71, 0.93)
4	0.8 (0.71, 0.91)
5	0.81 (0.71, 0.91)
6	0.97 (0.78, 1.18)
7	1 (0.84, 1.37)
8	1.01 (0.88, 1.19)
9	0.75 (0.72, 0.94)

ITS

	ITS Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.84 (0.65, 0.99)
1	0.71 (0.61, 0.84)
2	0.76 (0.66, 0.87)
3	0.86 (0.79, 0.91)
4	0.8 (0.75, 0.86)
5	0.86 (0.78, 0.94)
6	0.99 (0.89, 1.05)
7	1.08 (0.87, 1.15)
8	0.98 (0.9, 1.08)
9	0.78 (0.72, 0.84)

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	E00_99	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	M00_99	0.4681854
1	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	K00_99	0.1749752
2	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	0.9999716	N39	0.4519727
3	cJ20_J22	0.4638002	P00_99	0.4165669	K35	0.1589148
4	pandemic	1.0000000	E00_99	0.8231636	Z00_99	0.6053682
5	pandemic	1.0000000	A41	0.9999950	I00_99	0.7253105
6	pandemic	1.0000000	L00_99	0.4974093	E00_99	0.4791203
7	H00_99_SY	0.6478153	I00_99	0.4918755	K80	0.4291625
8	I00_99	0.6599565	A41	0.6269546	K80	0.3215934
9	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	1.0000000	E00_99	0.1609396

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.83 (0.75, 1.04)	cJ20_J22	1	0.89 (0.74, 1.09)	E00_99	1	0.9 (0.74, 1.12)	M00_99	0.47	0.95 (0.75, 1.15)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.76 (0.71, 0.9)	E40_46	1	0.76 (0.71, 0.95)	K00_99	0.17	0.76 (0.69, 0.94)
2	0.77 (0.73, 0.86)	cJ20_J22	1	0.8 (0.73, 0.96)	E40_46	1	0.75 (0.68, 0.96)	N39	0.45	0.77 (0.67, 0.92)
3	0.75 (0.71, 0.93)	cJ20_J22	0.46	0.79 (0.71, 0.92)	P00_99	0.42	0.78 (0.71, 0.92)	K35	0.16	0.78 (0.7, 0.89)
4	0.8 (0.71, 0.91)	pandemic	1	0.68 (0.56, 0.83)	E00_99	0.82	0.74 (0.57, 0.81)	Z00_99	0.61	0.71 (0.6, 0.82)
5	0.81 (0.71, 0.91)	pandemic	1	0.65 (0.54, 0.82)	A41	1	0.78 (0.65, 0.88)	I00_99	0.73	0.81 (0.67, 0.91)
6	0.97 (0.78, 1.18)	pandemic	1	0.82 (0.67, 0.94)	L00_99	0.5	0.87 (0.67, 1.01)	E00_99	0.48	0.89 (0.64, 1)
7	1 (0.84, 1.37)	H00_99_SY	0.65	0.95 (0.8, 1.24)	I00_99	0.49	0.94 (0.82, 1.18)	K80	0.43	1.09 (0.98, 1.22)
8	1.01 (0.88, 1.19)	I00_99	0.66	0.97 (0.87, 1.12)	A41	0.63	1.02 (0.9, 1.14)	K80	0.32	1.03 (0.88, 1.14)
9	0.75 (0.72, 0.94)	cJ20_J22	1	0.84 (0.75, 1)	E40_46	1	0.79 (0.68, 0.94)	E00_99	0.16	0.75 (0.69, 0.86)

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